r/canadaguns • u/mischling2543 • Apr 07 '26
News / Politics / Activism AFSCP Participation per 1000 PAL Holders (map)
Based on the data calculated in this comment: https://www.reddit.com/r/canadaguns/s/oZlTfOs8Aj
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u/bermpan Apr 07 '26
COME ON BC WHAT ARE WE DOING?
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u/ecclectic Apr 07 '26
Well, OP can't fucking do math for one thing.. We have 340000 PAL holders in BC, but they divided by the population of the province, not the number of PAL holders. which gives a smidge under 5% compliance.
But we all know that ain't the fucking case, and if you go by the rather short estimate of every PAL holder owning 2.5 guns, you get down to about 1.8%. Do the same math with Ontario (69000 PAL holders) and you come out at 1.6%
Alberta, understandably, had a much lower compliance rate, but they have close to the same number of PAL holders as BC, and marked 0.8% compliance.
Maybe we should stop aiming blindly around the room and actually start focusing on the problem at hand instead of blaming the guy next door?
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u/TKB-059 bc Apr 07 '26
Can't blame people here for being bad at math, they never had to count past five or ten.
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u/Cre_AK47 Name Prohibited by OIC Apr 07 '26
If only the government didn't have magazine capacity restrictions, we could at least count to 30!
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u/Amazing_Pudding1896 Apr 07 '26
To be fair, 30 factorial is a pretty big number.....ok nerd moment is gone, i'll see myself out
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u/viccityguy2k Apr 07 '26
Also - shouldn’t it be a ratio of affected guns? Black / restricted guns are very popular in BC
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u/splooges Apr 07 '26 edited Apr 07 '26
We have 340000 PAL holders in BC, but they divided by the population of the province, not the number of PAL holders.
Um, can you do math? If you divide BC's ASFCP number by the population of BC, you'd get a lower number since the population of BC is far higher than the number of BC PAL holders. If the OP truly did calculate his results using the approach you are accusing him of, BC would have a lower rate of compliance - i.e. OP would be making BC look better, not worse.
However, the truth is that the OP's math is not wrong; 15600 ASFCP firearms divided by number of BC PAL holders (368K) gives a number just over 40 firearms per 1000 PAL holders.
The fact that you're so upvoted is what actually shows that people in this subreddit either can't do math or are butthurt that this specific statistic portrays BC gun owners in a negative way.
Maybe we should stop aiming blindly around the room and actually start focusing on the problem at hand instead of blaming the guy next door?
Sensitive much? Nobody is really blaming BC - for all we know, proportionally there are just more restricted PALs in BC than the rest of Canada. You're crashing out on the OP for no reason.
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u/ecclectic Apr 07 '26
Fair enough, OP is just using a piss-poor presentation to drive engagement based of worse information.
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u/DoYouGetSarcasm Apr 07 '26
Math looks right to me. It's guns declared, divided by pal holders, times 1000. Example for BC. 366 827 pals (from table 1 of the first link here). 15 600 asfcp items (from second link below, comment) 15 600/366 827 *1000 = 42.5.
Comment all you like about whether this is a valuable metric, but the math is right.
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u/mischling2543 Apr 07 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
As others have already said, you're completely incorrect about this. As the map very clearly states, it is program participation per 1000 PAL holders. If it were by raw population then it would be a very different map.
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u/BrotherLefthand Apr 07 '26
I do wonder how many of those are coming from people here on Visas that likely won't see visa renewal. Easier to sell the guns to the government before being sent home.
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u/HappyCan7250 Apr 08 '26
I was sort of wondering this too, or for temporary/permanent residents who were too scared to risk their residency for their guns. I think they would be far more likely to hand them in.
I also think it's sort of nuts that you can come here on a student visa and get a firearms license. I do think it should require citizenship or permanent residents only for firearms licenses.
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u/BrotherLefthand Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26
I agree, it's insane. No temporary residents should be permitted firearms.
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u/Agent_1812 https://youtu.be/mrAwb9ptu9U Apr 07 '26
population density, more suburban gun owners with more to lose
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u/Crossed_Cross Apr 07 '26
It's worth noting that restricted models could have been way more popular in some provinces than others. The number of returns per PAL owners is a pretty poor metric of compliance.
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u/Cre_AK47 Name Prohibited by OIC Apr 07 '26 edited Apr 07 '26
Who knew Québec gun owners could be so based (oh hey, look at me!). Goes to show the disconnect between well-off Laurentian Elites in Metro-Montréal compared to the rest of Québec, who can easily see through this bullshit scam.
Shame on B.C., weak cowards - you aren't going to get any money from this scam to buy more weed.
PS, the vast majority of QC gun owners have never registered their Non-Restricted guns!
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u/gnu_gai Apr 07 '26
The fact that BC is worst and still only 42 firearms per thousand owners declared says a lot. At worst that's 4.2% of owners declaring a single firearm, far more likely a much lower percentage declaring multiple each
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u/gnu_gai Apr 07 '26
Quebec is the only surprise on this map for me tbh, everything else checks out
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u/saulgoodman147 Apr 07 '26
You clearly arnt from Quebec, they wanted to take our language away before, now it’s our guns……can’t speak for the cities, but the rural side of Qc is not to be messed with IMO registration was all talk, no push
You know what happens if you roll a stop with unregistered guns…. They don’t take them away, they give you a stiff 500$-5,000$ fine and tell you to register it LOL
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u/KriosXVII Apr 07 '26
Quebec has a large urban population around Montreal, and a few outspoken anti-gun activists
But the PAL holders are hunters and sports shooters just like anywhere else.
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u/amorphoussoupcake Apr 08 '26
Don’t draw any conclusions from this data. The proportion of eligible gun owners varies by province.
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Apr 07 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/HappyCan7250 Apr 08 '26
I suspect most of it was older guys who aren't as engaged in the community and may have just owned something like an M14.
I think almost every PAL holder under 40 basically said "fuck you" to the government.
I do know a few older guys though who also said fuck you to the government, but I suspect most of the registrations were older folks.
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u/yourunclegord Apr 07 '26
How many weren't stores recovering banned inventory costs is the real question ?
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u/GonZo_626 Apr 07 '26
This question has been answered dozens of times by every official source and alot of unofficial ones. None, there were no stores in these numbers, the stores were in a different count as part of a different part of the program.
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u/EquivalentCar7289 Apr 07 '26
You can always count on Québec for not listening to the federal !!!
As a rural quebecer
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u/AppointmentLivid8477 Apr 07 '26
There may be higher proportion of professionals in BC and Ontario. They cannot risk losing their professional licenses. In Vancouver, it is a long drive to get to a range for handguns and rifles, and therefore less incentive to keep the prohibited guns.
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u/mischling2543 Apr 08 '26
That's what my uncle (lawyer) always says about this. "I have to comply because I'd lose my law license if I got an illegal firearms charge"
The implication that an illegal firearms charge wouldn't be career-ending for most people is completely untrue imo
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u/Tryce3 Apr 08 '26
I’m so embarrassed that I’m from BC . So many weak minded scaredy cats here. Never trust anyone from Vancouver area because that’s where the problem lies . Once you get out of the lower mainland people are good. And I can say this because I live in the lower mainland and see it first hand. I have to move up country. And soon
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u/N0_Cure Apr 07 '26
BC is an embarrassment in every way imaginable as usual. Only joking (sort of), got to pay off that 700 sq ft 1,000,000 dollar condo somehow. I’m sure that handing in a $2000 rifle for the chance to receive $200 or less is well worth it.
In all seriousness though, I guarantee that the majority of the guns submitted were from fudds or otherwise just plain gullible, subservient fools who believe the fear mongering and that they will be compensated fairly.
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u/EnoughTrack96 Apr 07 '26
Lololololol 🤣
Assault-style ownership numbers now magically has a correlation to the number of PAL holders?
I bet OP sucked doing lab reports, if they were lucky enough to finish highskewl.
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u/mischling2543 Apr 08 '26
You sound mad lmao
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u/EnoughTrack96 Apr 08 '26
Not mad, but annoyed when someone uses data that means little and tries to make a correlation that is flawed or non existent.
Your fancy chart is misleading at best.
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u/mischling2543 Apr 08 '26
Sounds like you just enjoy complaining then, because no point is being made here other than "look at this data." Or perhaps you're personally offended that your province is marked red.
If you have an issue with this particular metric then you're welcome to make your own map with whatever metric you prefer.
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u/EnoughTrack96 Apr 08 '26
IF every PAL holder possessed 1 banned firearm, then there'd be some sort of correlation.
But there's no such data about that. You post is pointless and so is your chart.
I'm annoyed by incompetence, and the complaint is a result of that.
My province/territory is one of the least participating ones.
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u/mischling2543 Apr 09 '26
Man unless you have concrete data showing that the ownership of banned firearms as a ratio of PAL holders differs significantly by province then just be quiet. If you had the kind of statistics knowledge that you claim you'd know that your complaints make no sense. I encourage you to look up the Dunning-Kruger effect.
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u/Spare-Swim9458 Apr 07 '26
Does this include licensed sellers that don’t have a us counterpart to ship back to? I know my local gun store sold some to the government to get their money back on items they could no longer legally sell.
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u/gspotcowboy Apr 07 '26
That was a separate part of the program and isn't included in the January 19 - March 31 figures
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u/Dilly-Mac ns Apr 07 '26
Disappointed in Nova Scotia
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u/RabiPOPshoo7erX Apr 07 '26
I thought NS would be A LOT darker considering how red we were during elections... Surprised how much BC betrayed us though...
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u/Loonerman Apr 07 '26
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u/mischling2543 Apr 08 '26
Yeah but Manitoba also has a small population of PAL holders (I know - I'm one of them)
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u/BadOysterParty Apr 09 '26
And Quebecers are required to register their non restricteds... so they are playing with fire
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u/Canadian-gun-nut Apr 09 '26
Love my community. Seriously I love every single one of you for having a spine. This country needs people with a spine. 🫡 united
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u/Radec_ Secret Soviet Apr 07 '26
with how often the government lies about stats i wouldn't be surprised if the number is significantly lower
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u/Superb_Extension1751 Apr 07 '26
ON and BC big government simps
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u/yummybunnybear Apr 07 '26
Their compensation (if any) will pay 1/4 of their monthly rent and they'll now have extra space to rent out a vertical sleeping space for one more international student.
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u/China_bot42069 Apr 07 '26
Bc and Ontario full of collaborators. They also voted for the LPC so I’m not shocked.
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u/yoyofagbro Apr 07 '26
BC is full of cockroaches who think their shit doesn't stink. overpriced drug infested shitty ass province
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u/[deleted] Apr 07 '26
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