r/canadaguns • u/Infinite-Bill1072 • Apr 06 '26
News / Politics / Activism Declared ASFCP Firearms When Formatted For Guns Per 100,000 People
Please correct my math if I made any errors, and I will edit the post accordingly.
It's interesting to see which provinces have the culture that caved in the most.
Alberta
(7,334 ÷ 4,800,768) × 100,000 ≈ 152.8
British Columbia
(15,600 ÷ 5,646,467) × 100,000 ≈ 276.3
Manitoba
(2,442 ÷ 1,465,000) × 100,000 ≈ 166.7
New Brunswick
(1,150 ÷ 844,000) × 100,000 ≈ 136.3
Newfoundland and Labrador
(484 ÷ 545,000) × 100,000 ≈ 88.8
Northwest Territories
(81 ÷ 45,000) × 100,000 ≈ 180.0
Nova Scotia
(1,702 ÷ 1,079,000) × 100,000 ≈ 157.8
Nunavut
(9 ÷ 40,000) × 100,000 ≈ 22.5
Ontario
(27,487 ÷ 15,996,989) × 100,000 ≈ 171.8
Prince Edward Island
(170 ÷ 177,000) × 100,000 ≈ 96.0
Quebec
(9,801 ÷ 9,100,249) × 100,000 ≈ 107.7
Saskatchewan
(1,255 ÷ 1,240,000) × 100,000 ≈ 101.2
Yukon
(134 ÷ 47,000) × 100,000 ≈ 285.1
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u/Swissmcmurray Apr 06 '26
Per PAL holder, using u/nschwart91 's link:
| Province | Declared per 1000 PAL holders |
|---|---|
| British Columbia | 42.52685871 |
| Ontario | 39.83149829 |
| Manitoba | 23.69079726 |
| Prince Edward Island | 23.41275306 |
| Nova Scotia | 21.32270956 |
| Quebec | 19.63058213 |
| Alberta | 19.62510536 |
| Yukon | 15.27761943 |
| New Brunswick | 15.04310176 |
| Northwest Territories | 13.61344538 |
| Saskatchewan | 10.29735141 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 6.391210765 |
| Nunavut | 3.027550711 |
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u/Infinite-Bill1072 Apr 06 '26
Thank you, I didn't know where to find the PAL holder # so I settled for population
And the 3 provinces that require front and back license plates for cars are the top 3, coincidence? I think not...
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Apr 06 '26
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u/Whispersfine Apr 06 '26 edited Apr 06 '26
Gun owners in Vancouver and Toronto contributed a lot in the numbers. The fact that they have to move around with the banned firearms and lacking of crown lands to shoot on really puts them in a tighter spot.
My hats off to the Saskatchewans, they have large balls.
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u/LongRoadNorth Apr 06 '26 edited Apr 06 '26
I'm really surprised how many in the GTA are contributing to it. But I guess if they're restricted they don't really have a choice it's already known.
Also didn't realize the population of Ontario was that much more than every other province, 3x as much as Alberta and BC nearly. Fuck Toronto alone is the same population as Alberta practically.
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u/Whispersfine Apr 06 '26
Ya man, almost half of our entire population resides in Ontario. Toronto is very densely populated almost 5000 people per square kilometers. Which is why I think Ontario did just fine. BC however really blew my mind. I wasn’t expecting these many at all. I would assume Vancouver really dropped the ball because they are also very populated
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u/AdditionalLoss7274 Apr 06 '26
If you mean a tighter spot financially, yeah, Vancouver is effing expensive. I hope those traitors don't see a dime. I'm truly ashamed of this province.
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u/Subrandom249 Apr 06 '26
A comparison to general gun ownership per capita would be interesting - you would expect a province with higher ownership rates to have higher participation, and provinces with fewer to have lower (there are fewer guns to turn in).
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u/airchinapilot Apr 06 '26
RCMP have a table showing number of licenses broken down by province from 2024 that might be useful for this
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u/Upstairs-Zebra8115 Apr 06 '26
Table 5 in this report shows a breakdown by province with counts for non-restricted, restricted and prohibited (??) licences. Using this data of actual restricted+prohibited licences and the "More than 67,000" guns declared, this represents a mere 8.2% of correspondingly licensed Canadians. This assumes that each license only represents 1 restricted/prohibited gun which is definitely not the case (although myself as an example have an RPAL but no restricted/prohibited guns). So I think the best they can say is that 8.2% of total licensees actually declared guns for compensation. Is this logic wrong?
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u/Barbarian_818 Apr 06 '26
No, I don't think your logic is wrong. I think having an average of one firearm per PAL holder is useful for setting a lower boundary on the number of potentially affected firearms.
Sure, there are some PAL holders with no firearms at all. And doubtless there are many with no affected firearms. But that gets offset by the fact that there are going to be many PAL holders with 3 or more firearms. I seem to recall a statistic that was thrown out for consideration that a PALs average collection size was 3 while the average RPAL holder had 5 or more in their gun safe. I don't know how accurate that is, I don't remember where I heard that stat or whether some official source was cited. But it sounds plausible to me.
I think it's interesting to note that the existing Prohibs that got grandfathered do not seem to have been used in crime ever. And this current effort hasn't mentioned existing Prohibs at all.
As I've said before, this is as much a war on gun culture as it is the arms themselves. Nathalie clearly blames gun culture for creating the man behind the Polytech shooting. She seems to think that hunting, sport shooting and collecting are just fig leaves to cover a malignancy that must be rooted out and crushed. The reason the current effort started off so broad in scope and increased three more times was because the gun community just made plans to switch to unaffected firearms after each stage. She obviously doesn't want that. Mr Anandasangaree did say at a press announcement that they don't want people taking the buyout and using the money to buy another gun. And he said quite plainly that they intend to form a committee to look at the SKS. The implication is that they really really want to ban the SKS as well.
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u/Spiritual_Rope_6952 Apr 06 '26
seeing quebec having one of the lowest compliance rates amongst the provinces, yet being the only one officially supporting this program really makes me laugh 🤣 quebecers want nothing to do with this, its just our stupid government that was given a fat envelope from ottawa to participate
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u/amorphoussoupcake Apr 06 '26
You should factor in that only those with pals and rpals can participate. Otherwise you can’t compare the provinces because they have different proportions of license holders.
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u/nschwart91 Apr 06 '26
The Commissioner of Firearms Report has a table with the number of PALs per p/t:
2024 Commissioner of Firearms Report | Royal Canadian Mounted Police https://share.google/tODM1vHvYEtBeSVKx
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u/Tangen7 Apr 06 '26
Nunavut says no! 😁 Bc is an expensive place to live. The value adds up quick if you have a few and a couple grand can mean the difference between making bills or not if shit goes sideways. Glad I moved back to SK.
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u/1anre Apr 06 '26
Yukon & BC.
Any reasons driving that?
Expected Ontario & Quebec to be the highest
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u/Yamaganto_Iori Apr 06 '26
Another comment broke it down by per 1000 PAL holders and the Yukon was about 15 per 1000 which was even less than Alberta's 19. BC was still top of the list and my guess would be Vancouver owners worried that the VPD will actually go door to door.
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u/PumpJack_McGee Apr 07 '26
Views are a little skewed because that's also just where all the politicians driving this are. Doesn't reflect general populace.
That goes with a lot of issues, actually.
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u/BlackElmyr Apr 06 '26
A lot of good cooperative work done here. One thing that I guess is impossible to measure but certainly had some importance was the level of backing or at least Fed obstruction each province's RPAL/ PAL holders got from their provinces. That likely had a measurable impact on people's confidence in holding firm or not.
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u/Silentnine Apr 06 '26
It doesn't surprise me when we seem to be the only province not atleast questioning the validity of it.
They know I have an AR... its registered. I have had it for a very long time and I thankfully got to shoot it a lot before it was banned. If they come to seize it so be it, I feel like I got my value out of it atleast so I don't need compensation. They still have to come and get it. I am not delivering anything and I'll probably cut the receiver into two pieces before they get it also.
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u/ChillyWillie1974 Apr 06 '26
You should do this but use the number of PAL/RPAL holders per province
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u/Bitter_Lettuce2970 Apr 06 '26
Sorry if this has been answered already, but do we know if these numbers include retailers? If so that could account for the higher than expected numbers in certain provinces.
There are some considerably large retailers in Aberta, BC and Ontario whose inventory could make up a considerable chunk of banned guns on their own.
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u/Infinite-Bill1072 Apr 06 '26
I don't think it does apply to them, since the option to apply for program had two different buttons to click, one for individuals and one for businesses
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u/Scott-YYC Apr 06 '26
You should do a per capita graph of Liberal supporters of Canada / province, it would be far more useful.
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-10
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u/567432Gains Apr 06 '26
I’m not too surprised with BC, being from here myself, but keep in mind the police are actually a bit more willing to help the government than other provinces for some reason.
I do think it might also have to do with a lot of older people just not wanting to deal with the hassle at this point.