Weekly Politics Thread

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[u/Batsinvic888]

June 7th is next committee meeting in which they could vote in favour of adopting the handgun freeze regulations that allows the government to OIC transfers.

[u/CalibreMag → u/Batsinvic888]

The committee doesn't need to vote for that happen, though. The regulations pass into law by OIC, issued by the Privy Council; that process doesn't need to involve SECU at all.

The gov has committed to the Regs following the standard parliamentary procedure, which means allowing 30 days for consultation. That's why the estimate is fall (the regs were introduced with 20 days remaining in the parliamentary calendar before the HoC prorogues for summer, so 20 days now, 10 in the fall when it sits again, then the Regs get OIC'ed in place). Again, the process could be suspended and the regs OIC'ed in any time, but that would be a departure from their stated plan.

SECU is only really responsible for formally reporting on the bill and any proposed amendments to the HoC between 2nd and 3rd readings.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

You are getting confused between Bill C-21 and the regulations proposed to Parliament. The LPC is trying, and likely will, ban transfers before C-21 passes.

Making of regulations

(4) A proposed regulation that has been laid pursuant to subsection (1) may be made

(a) on the expiration of thirty sitting days after it was laid; or

(b) where, with respect to each House of Parliament,

(i) the committee reports to the House, or

(ii) the committee decides not to conduct inquiries or public hearings.

It's not 30 sitting days and the committee reports. It's 30 sitting days or the committee reports. The committee reporting means them voting on it.

Edit: You should watch Runkle video on it.

[u/CalibreMag → u/Batsinvic888]

Oh, I'm not getting them confused; I just disagree with this rumour that SECU is going to report on the regs given the regs still have yet to be published - it'd be a bit weird. And, again, every one of these "any day now" rumours goes against the government's own statement that the regs are expected to come into effect in the Fall. I could be wrong though, but I just can't take rumour over a statement produced by Public Safety and repeated by Public Safety staff in the media briefing.

I agree with you, however, that the regs will come into effect before the bill. I doubt the bill will ever pass, and expect it to die on the writ.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

I doubt the bill will ever pass, and expect it to die on the writ.

You have much more optimism than me.

[u/CalibreMag → u/Batsinvic888]

The purpose of the bill is to produce a viable wedge for the next election, and that purpose is best served by using C-21 to let the gov pump the tires on how bad guns are for as long as possible without using Liberal funds. Then, use the build-up of that rhetoric as a stick against the CPC candidate, and as a carrot for their own electorate in the next election. Passing it would be less useful to that purpose, ergo, I don't think it's their intention. The regs coming in during the Fall would also be more useful to this strategy as well, since it'll let them reboot the "guns are bad" story when people start paying attention to politics again after the summer.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

I don't disagree, I just am not confident an election will be called.

I can't see the LPC numbers being good enough to warrant them calling an election. The Bloc and CPC will always be ready to vote down the LPC. The real question is the NDP, they need to recover financially and they need to see their poll number go up. I'm 50/50 on whether or not they actually vote non-confidence.

[u/TechnologyReady → u/Batsinvic888]

I have read (and listened, the Silvercore podcast was really good) and agree with a lot of CalibreMag's comments, and his estimation of the political calculus being done, etc.

But, I also feel, like you do, that the conclusion is not quite right. I think that what we will see, is that PP will take the CPC leadership, with overwhelming support (I don't strongly support him, this is not my bias talking) both in the CPC party, and in the wider Canadian electorate. This will scare the shit out of the LPC and the NDP, who will do whatever it takes to hold up this coalition government as long as possible.

I don't see the government falling before it's 4 years are up UNLESS there is some catastrophic, currently unforeseen event. ie: major economic melt-down, massive crippling protests, a serious escalation in the war and where the electorate realizes how badly prepared our military is (say, for example, we need jets or frigates). Something like that.

If Canada just keeps muddling through, and Trudeau doesn't shoot somebody on 5th Avenue (or maybe even if he does) the NDP will keep propping up the LPC until the natural end of this parliamentary session.

[u/TechnologyReady → u/CalibreMag]

I largely agree with your read on the politicking, though I think the wedge would be just as effective if Bill C-21 has passed, and they can still beat up Pierre Poilievre with the suggestion that he will reverse it. Just as they did with O'Toole and the AW's.

I suppose this calculation is still a "live" one though. If it's looking like the government could fall in the time frame you suggest, they will not pass the bill, to use it as you suggest. But, if they are confident this session can go the distance, they'll pass it. It seems inconceivable to me that they could drag this out 3 more years.

Do you have any opinion on Runkle's suggestion that they actually made the decision to allow the sell-out, in order to avoid having the buy-back the guns? I think that makes a lot of sense. I think that as long as there isn't any sign that the supply chain isn't continuing to import large amounts of handguns in the interim, they'll just let this go.

Wishful thinking maybe...

[u/CalibreMag → u/TechnologyReady]

The average minority lasts 479 days. The vast majority of them haven't lasted two full years. The absolute longest minority gov we've had was 3 years 7 months, and that was William Lyon Mackenzie King's - and Trudeau and no Mac King. Based on the average length, this gov should fall January 12, 2023.

Personally, I kinda expect a Spring 2023 writ - just based on historical averages overlaid with our current crop of problems and personalities. Trudeau isn't having a lot of fun any more, and the NDP is suffering a significant identity crisis that many appropriately blame Jagmeet for. Neither can safely attend events that would have been vote-harvesting windfalls even a few months ago.

Specifically, though, I expect Justin's hemmoraging of votes every time we've had an election to be what the writ hinges on. I suspect the LPC knows he can't win them another majority, and as a result, we'll see him step down and a writ drop after that when the new LPC leader looks to answer questions about what sort of mandate they have. But Justin's ego is huge, and he may not want to leave, so anything could happen.

As for the idea of the sell out to avoid a buyback - I don't think the government went into that level of granular thinking here. From the impression I got from the briefing, they aren't that organized on this file, nor knowledgable. Marco's staff are pretty new to it, and there's been a lot of turnover in the Public Safety shop. Plus, as far as the gov (and reality) is concerned, there is no difference between a store owning a gun and a consumer owning a gun - not with regards to a buyback.

That's partly what makes me so frustrated about every comment crowing about how Trudeau is the best salesman ever. Sticking our communal finger in his eye like that entices people to make the assumption that there are more handguns out there than before, which just isn't true. There is basically the exact same number of handguns in Canada today as there was last week. They've just changed owners.

[u/TechnologyReady → u/CalibreMag]

I subscribe to the belief that Trudeau is an egomaniac and narcissist, though maybe not to the point of NPD. I don't think he will step down. He wants to live up to Pierre's reputation, and I think he's growing increasingly frustrated that he isn't widely viewed/exulted to have done so. I don't see him giving up on his grand epic.

But I don't subscribe to the simple metric of an average of 479 days. It will come down to reality on the ground. Jagmeet doesn't want to lose his position any more than Justin does. And they both are looking at PP's rallies with alarm.

I think we are in for a really rough ride in the fall, when the effect of inflation collide with food shortages and housing unaffordability. You are exactly right when you talked about a government living and dying on budgetary issues. The continuation of the government will depend on whether they can convince the electorate that they haven't wasted billions of dollars on pet projects that could have been better spent on more fundamental programs. Which will largely depend on how the media spins that story. And I'm starting to notice a shift in that narrative... the latest being the Terry Glavin affair... that even the media are starting to see the problem inherent in wokeism.

I do totally agree that it was a bad idea to poke the bear with talk of a handgun sales surge. Should have just quietly let this run it's course.

[u/throwa37 → u/CalibreMag]

I got from the briefing, they aren't that organized on this file, nor knowledgable. Marco's staff are pretty new to it, and there's been a lot of turnover in the Public Safety shop.

This is what I find scary. It's ignorance and inexperience that's going to result in them pulling insane shit like capping every magazine in the country to five rounds regardless of practicality, and banning extremely common guns like the SKS because Poly tells them to.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

when the new LPC leader looks to answer questions about what sort of mandate they have.

I have said this so many times during and just after the last election, but I completely forgot about this. I think this is the best possible chance for an early election.