Weekly Politics Thread

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[u/CalibreMag]

The purpose of the bill is to produce a viable wedge for the next election, and that purpose is best served by using C-21 to let the gov pump the tires on how bad guns are for as long as possible without using Liberal funds. Then, use the build-up of that rhetoric as a stick against the CPC candidate, and as a carrot for their own electorate in the next election. Passing it would be less useful to that purpose, ergo, I don't think it's their intention. The regs coming in during the Fall would also be more useful to this strategy as well, since it'll let them reboot the "guns are bad" story when people start paying attention to politics again after the summer.

[u/TechnologyReady → u/CalibreMag]

I largely agree with your read on the politicking, though I think the wedge would be just as effective if Bill C-21 has passed, and they can still beat up Pierre Poilievre with the suggestion that he will reverse it. Just as they did with O'Toole and the AW's.

I suppose this calculation is still a "live" one though. If it's looking like the government could fall in the time frame you suggest, they will not pass the bill, to use it as you suggest. But, if they are confident this session can go the distance, they'll pass it. It seems inconceivable to me that they could drag this out 3 more years.

Do you have any opinion on Runkle's suggestion that they actually made the decision to allow the sell-out, in order to avoid having the buy-back the guns? I think that makes a lot of sense. I think that as long as there isn't any sign that the supply chain isn't continuing to import large amounts of handguns in the interim, they'll just let this go.

Wishful thinking maybe...

[u/CalibreMag → u/TechnologyReady]

The average minority lasts 479 days. The vast majority of them haven't lasted two full years. The absolute longest minority gov we've had was 3 years 7 months, and that was William Lyon Mackenzie King's - and Trudeau and no Mac King. Based on the average length, this gov should fall January 12, 2023.

Personally, I kinda expect a Spring 2023 writ - just based on historical averages overlaid with our current crop of problems and personalities. Trudeau isn't having a lot of fun any more, and the NDP is suffering a significant identity crisis that many appropriately blame Jagmeet for. Neither can safely attend events that would have been vote-harvesting windfalls even a few months ago.

Specifically, though, I expect Justin's hemmoraging of votes every time we've had an election to be what the writ hinges on. I suspect the LPC knows he can't win them another majority, and as a result, we'll see him step down and a writ drop after that when the new LPC leader looks to answer questions about what sort of mandate they have. But Justin's ego is huge, and he may not want to leave, so anything could happen.

As for the idea of the sell out to avoid a buyback - I don't think the government went into that level of granular thinking here. From the impression I got from the briefing, they aren't that organized on this file, nor knowledgable. Marco's staff are pretty new to it, and there's been a lot of turnover in the Public Safety shop. Plus, as far as the gov (and reality) is concerned, there is no difference between a store owning a gun and a consumer owning a gun - not with regards to a buyback.

That's partly what makes me so frustrated about every comment crowing about how Trudeau is the best salesman ever. Sticking our communal finger in his eye like that entices people to make the assumption that there are more handguns out there than before, which just isn't true. There is basically the exact same number of handguns in Canada today as there was last week. They've just changed owners.

[u/TechnologyReady → u/CalibreMag]

I subscribe to the belief that Trudeau is an egomaniac and narcissist, though maybe not to the point of NPD. I don't think he will step down. He wants to live up to Pierre's reputation, and I think he's growing increasingly frustrated that he isn't widely viewed/exulted to have done so. I don't see him giving up on his grand epic.

But I don't subscribe to the simple metric of an average of 479 days. It will come down to reality on the ground. Jagmeet doesn't want to lose his position any more than Justin does. And they both are looking at PP's rallies with alarm.

I think we are in for a really rough ride in the fall, when the effect of inflation collide with food shortages and housing unaffordability. You are exactly right when you talked about a government living and dying on budgetary issues. The continuation of the government will depend on whether they can convince the electorate that they haven't wasted billions of dollars on pet projects that could have been better spent on more fundamental programs. Which will largely depend on how the media spins that story. And I'm starting to notice a shift in that narrative... the latest being the Terry Glavin affair... that even the media are starting to see the problem inherent in wokeism.

I do totally agree that it was a bad idea to poke the bear with talk of a handgun sales surge. Should have just quietly let this run it's course.