Weekly Politics Thread

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[u/CalibreMag]

Oh, I'm not getting them confused; I just disagree with this rumour that SECU is going to report on the regs given the regs still have yet to be published - it'd be a bit weird. And, again, every one of these "any day now" rumours goes against the government's own statement that the regs are expected to come into effect in the Fall. I could be wrong though, but I just can't take rumour over a statement produced by Public Safety and repeated by Public Safety staff in the media briefing.

I agree with you, however, that the regs will come into effect before the bill. I doubt the bill will ever pass, and expect it to die on the writ.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

I doubt the bill will ever pass, and expect it to die on the writ.

You have much more optimism than me.

[u/CalibreMag → u/Batsinvic888]

The purpose of the bill is to produce a viable wedge for the next election, and that purpose is best served by using C-21 to let the gov pump the tires on how bad guns are for as long as possible without using Liberal funds. Then, use the build-up of that rhetoric as a stick against the CPC candidate, and as a carrot for their own electorate in the next election. Passing it would be less useful to that purpose, ergo, I don't think it's their intention. The regs coming in during the Fall would also be more useful to this strategy as well, since it'll let them reboot the "guns are bad" story when people start paying attention to politics again after the summer.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

I don't disagree, I just am not confident an election will be called.

I can't see the LPC numbers being good enough to warrant them calling an election. The Bloc and CPC will always be ready to vote down the LPC. The real question is the NDP, they need to recover financially and they need to see their poll number go up. I'm 50/50 on whether or not they actually vote non-confidence.

[u/TechnologyReady → u/Batsinvic888]

I have read (and listened, the Silvercore podcast was really good) and agree with a lot of CalibreMag's comments, and his estimation of the political calculus being done, etc.

But, I also feel, like you do, that the conclusion is not quite right. I think that what we will see, is that PP will take the CPC leadership, with overwhelming support (I don't strongly support him, this is not my bias talking) both in the CPC party, and in the wider Canadian electorate. This will scare the shit out of the LPC and the NDP, who will do whatever it takes to hold up this coalition government as long as possible.

I don't see the government falling before it's 4 years are up UNLESS there is some catastrophic, currently unforeseen event. ie: major economic melt-down, massive crippling protests, a serious escalation in the war and where the electorate realizes how badly prepared our military is (say, for example, we need jets or frigates). Something like that.

If Canada just keeps muddling through, and Trudeau doesn't shoot somebody on 5th Avenue (or maybe even if he does) the NDP will keep propping up the LPC until the natural end of this parliamentary session.