r/canadaguns • u/rastamasta45 • Apr 02 '26
News / Politics / Activism The Logistics of Confiscation
I’d imagine they are now actually trying to plan how to collect the rifles.
Let’s look at the numbers.
Apparently declarations will be reviewed till May. From May to October they need to collect 370 guns every single day without weekend or holidays to make it before the amnesty.
That’s 15 rifles collected every hour without a break.
It takes about 20 minutes to verify and secure a rifle according to TPS. This comes out to 22,333 man hours of labour or 930 days of man hours of labour.
There is 182 days before amnesty expires.
These labour hours do not include transpiration to and from said firearm.
According to the Federal police association, they haven’t even been informed what vehicles they will be using or if they’re even obtained yet.
According to Gemini Public Safety Canada needs about 250 to 400 full time trained staff for the next 6 months working on this to pull it off. These individuals will have to be located or deployed across Canada, which means food and lodging needs to be covered.
Considering they’ve already blown the budget, not sure how they will pay these people.
Public Safety Canada needs to recruit up to 400 retired or odd duty officers, provided up to 60 to 100 full time vans operating full time. Public safety Canada would have to fuel up the van when gas is expected explode this spring / summer.
I’m legitimately wondering….what is going on in their minds when thinking about this task?
Or perhaps they’ll approve Quebec only, decline everyone else and tell them pound sand say they succeeded?
What’s everyone’s thoughts?
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u/Efficient-Divide1715 Apr 02 '26
I work for the feds for a years, not only is no one doing anything, barely anyone is hard working enough to pull off the math you just did. I think they will drag this out just to say they completed it. By 2036.
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u/Remarkable_Vanilla34 Apr 02 '26
Couple things.
There is about 9k guns in Saskatchewan and Alberta that probably won't be collected. So their final deceleration number is skewed. This bids well for their efforts to confiscate as it less guns to collect but their final numbers won't match the deceleration numbers they announced this week.
The declarations actually need to be evaluated before the program begins. People declared guns but it doesn't mean they declared correctly, honestly or that their gun even applies. Some people are not good with computers, some people are misinformed or misidentified their gun (a mossberg 714t is prohibited a 702 isn't but i have spoken to people who believed their gun was for example), and some people could have declared stuff they don't own, though thats unlikely. Lol maybe they think I own 5 javelin launchers. So the numbers are likely to be reduced by this as well, but also it means officers might be struggling to ensure they are actually taking guns that are prohibited. I never opened the portal so I can't speak to much to this because I don't know how the system input works, but I'm sure there are flaws or the government wouldn't be verifying anything since they didn't do any other due diligence on this bullshit in the last 6 years lol. Makes me wonder if the rumor that people turned guns in during the pilot that weren't actually prohibited is true.
If they are following the frame work of the pilot, it will actually require gun owners to make an appointment and deliver their guns to the mobile and stationary collection points. So they won't lose time to traveling but their relying on people to actually make appointments and show up. As far as I know, you can withdraw from the program, but I also don't think your obligated to participate. Knowing the government, it might not be feasible for people to even make an appointment. It also could mean their more limited to weekends and evenings, which further limits their time frame to participate. 182 days is significantly reduced if you don't have much traffic between 7am and 6pm on weekdays, but more traffic on weekends. If people can't schedule an appointment at a time that works for them, they may back out, and if they show up to a long wait time, they may turn around and go home.
I seriously doubt they will expect people to load prohibited guns into their cars and travel to a collection point with out some kind of ATT and guarantee of timely processing, but this is the LPC making this plan so it might not be well thought out. If you are participating in the program, do not leave your house with out a legal assurance that you are allowed to travel with these guns, don't take the liberals word on it that you are covered simply because they made a plan last minute with out thinking of these issues. Also make sure your covered if for some reason you can't turn them in and have to return home with them. And document everything, because if you turn in a restricted firearm and they destroy it but it still could be registered in your name, they will assume you still have it and you don't want your door kicked in and trying to prove you don't own it anymore in court. Do not leave your gun with them because the wait time is too long, or your frustrated because you waited inline, or the verification is taking to long. Even if its not a restricted firearm, you declared that you owned it, and there is no guarantee that they will not keep that information, its unlikely they will, and i wouldn't see it as a reason not to withdraw, but I would not want my name in a data base that say i own a prohibited gun that was actually destroyed. This program is going to rely heavily on retired LEOs who probably aren't computer literate and won't be held accountable if they screw up. The software is new, and the training to do these confiscations will be very rushed. I won't participate in any of this stuff because the government fucks up all the time and I'm not willing to incriminate myself, only for a clerical error to end with my dog getting shot. If you feel obligated to participate, just remember, this doesn't guarantee that their records will reflect that. This government does not give a fuck about gun owners.
The time to process these guns, available man power could cause significant delays, as well as expecting people to show up. It is relying on volunteers, on both ends of the collection. RCMP officers will be prioritized to community safety. Their job is to police the community first and Canada is short 3000 officers and thousand are off on short term leave and holidays at any given time, this idea that they will just fill in off duty is severely flawed when any available officer will be need for police work. The LPC would love to believe that officers actually want to volunteer, and they probably think they can bully detachments into prioritizing this program, but the political back lash will be huge if police staffing isn't met because the LPC is paying people willing to work overtime to sit in a van instead of filling shifts with short staff. It also relies on retired officers with a pension, who they assume will volunteer and stay committed the entire time. A lot of officers are against this program, and even if they aren't once their actually involved in the chaos they might walk away, especially if they don't really need the money.
The last thing is the funding is limited, the government, especially the LPC, don't come in on time or budget. The 250 million compensation could very easily be sucked up by other rising costs before the program completes. Don't expect to be cut a check when you hand your gun in, you likely won't see anything until the end of the program. For the LPC its better that no one gets paid until the end because if the funds run out or it goes over budget, or people aren't being compensated what they expected, people will just stop showing up and wait till the amnesty end or is extended. Remember, Quebec is priority here and compensation isn't guaranteed!
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u/Remarkable_Vanilla34 Apr 02 '26
Also, its possible people see "buy back" and believe its like a US buy back lol. It's unlikely but people who are not registered may show up to turn guns in they don't want or can't have. The LPC intentionally used this name for the program because they knew uninformed people would assume these guns are illegal or unwanted and the program was like the US. It would be hilarious if they have illegal guns turned in and have to deal with them, or they have old ladies showing up with trunk full of their dead husbands guns.
Another quick thought, if you bought your gun second hand, you can't be assured that it wasn't used for crime by the previous owner, our government believes we are all criminals in waiting, so while as far as i know, they are not sending any of these guns to forensics, it would not surprise me if they did, and it's a pseudo science at best. You are turning in a firearm to these people, you don't know where it will end up. Maybe it goes to a lab and they decide its a crime gun. Its unlikely but its just another reason not to participate. The program requires blind trust in a government with very little transparency and long sorted history with Firearms owners. Tomorrow Provost could be the Public safety minister for all we know.
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u/rastamasta45 Apr 02 '26
Everything you said is correct and I 100% expect the government to fuck up collection and ruin the lives of people who are participating. As you said gun owners aren’t they’re friends, you think provost would ever say “oh we messed up, but you complied” not a fat Gary cheek chance. They’ll say it’s your fault for even owning a gun and this is the punishment you deserve for ever buying one. They’ll use people whose lives are ruined for COMPLYING as an example of why you should ever have a gun or pal.
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u/Remarkable_Vanilla34 Apr 02 '26
I've been warning people about this from the beginning. There is always chance your not immune to criminal charges just because you comply, your making a leap of faith that this ridiculous, slapped together program is going to run smoothly. The consequences of an error on their part can mean serious legal issues. One day your complying in hopes of some sort of reimbursement, the next your drowning in legal debt fighting prohibited weapons charges in court.
The only people who will be willing to help administrate this either don't give a fuck and want an easy pay cheque, or their anti gun zealots who view you as a criminal. your loading a prohibited firearm into your car and handing it to them and assuming that they will do their due diligence.
On top of that your assuming the system itself runs correctly. I'm sure we all saw the viral screen shots of guns being valued at $2, that is mostly likely a bug, which means that the program already has had flaws. We are relying on human inputs into a potentially flawed system to get very important and particular information correct, and that information is what will be used to verify the firearm you submitted has been destroyed. If the amnesty is not extended or someone like Provost gets free reign over it, you really want to make sure that information is recorded the same as the declaration that was submitted.
The travel thing is a big deal as well, these guns are prohibited firearms, loading them into your car and moving them is a high risk activity for multiple reasons, make sure you have an ATT and know exactly how they need to be secured and stored before leaving your home and that you are authorized to return if you can't turn them in. The RCMP union already said this is one of their concerns, that some one will be reported for moving "assault" rifles and they will have to respond to a call and treat it as a legitimate threat.
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u/rastamasta45 Apr 02 '26
Not to mention the system they are relying on was deemed a success for managing 25 firearms over 6 weeks. They now have 67,000 for 26 weeks. This was not tested for this volume at all.
I 100% see people whose lives will be ruined, the LPC spinning them as criminals and they deserve it and just overall chaos….for complying.
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u/JAFOguy Apr 02 '26
When the Government posts jobs for the confiscation program, I suggest we all apply. Those will be fairly well-paying jobs. It will be patriotic and show that you care about the rule of law and support the Government. Then, after you get the job, just be as stunningly incompetent as you possibly can. Mess up everything from start to finish. Mess up your hiring paperwork. Show up at the wrong places. Be as confused as you can at even the simplest directions. Don't let any training proceed uninterrupted; ask all the questions, misunderstand all the instructions, question everything. Absolutely fuck it up from start to finish to the point where you not only never actually confiscate a firearm, but you run the program into the dust. Join the union and fight your dismissal as hard and as long as possible. After you are let go, apply again. Weaponized incompetence will win and get you paid while doing it.
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u/yellowbreadletter Apr 02 '26
So you're basically saying act like the average liberal government employee.
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Apr 02 '26
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u/kylethesnail Apr 02 '26
But but but their current leader is a seasoned « EcOnOmIsT » ,no? At least that was the selling point during the election and people actually bought in on that.
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u/mywaaaaife Apr 02 '26
“You’ll excuse me if I don’t concern myself with monetary policy.” -Justin Trudeau
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u/DYTREM Apr 02 '26
Another 15B boondoggle in the making.
And Libs supporters will get rich again at our expenses.
Some things do not change.
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u/Barbarian_818 Apr 02 '26
Gary has, at every opportunity, been as vague as fucking possible about the logistics of collection. Every time he speaks on the subject, it sounds like he **doesn't** have a plan and that they are still floating concepts around.
He's said it won't be normal police resources involved. There's been suggestions that off duty and retired RCMP might be used. Not even a hint of how those resources might be employed or even how they plan on recruiting officers to what is pretty much going to have to be an optional task.
Critics and official questioners have asked if these officers will be sent out to visit gun owners door to door and he has always deflected that question. Maybe it'll be vans going door to door. Maybe they'll be setting up the van in a parking lot and advertising in the media for people to come in and hand over their affected firearms under the amnesty. He did say at one press thing that once the amnesty period ends this fall, that it won't matter if this police department or that police association is against it, that they will still have to enforce the law.
I suspect that means that some within this boondoggle are thinking about taking the easiest, laziest and more cowardly way out: Simply cancel the PAL of anyone known to have a Restricted that didn't report it and report this to local constabulary to arrest the "miscreant" and confiscate the firearms. The rest can be left to be slowly and quietly collected over time as people die with "radioactive" property in their gun safes or the possessor comes under police scrutiny for other reasons. (Nathalie clearly thinks all legal gun owners are dangerous miscreants who are one bad day away from committing mass murder)
Whatever it is, there is the extremely clear impression that they haven't thought it through, that they haven't even polled any of the rank and file RCMP to gauge how many might be willing to volunteer for this project.
I suspect that most of the people involved don't actually care about this all that much. This is a doomed project created just as a sop to keep a pretty strident minority happy. So nobody is working on it, they're just winging it.
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u/Acceptable_Visit_115 Apr 02 '26
Whatever it is, there is the extremely clear impression that they haven't thought it through, that they haven't even polled any of the rank and file RCMP to gauge how many might be willing to volunteer for this project.
Their union recently told them to pound sand.
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u/Agonizing-Stroke1812 Apr 02 '26 edited Apr 02 '26
If they actually intend to go through with this they would probably just revoke RPALs for all known R->P holders that don't comply. Then your next interaction with the police will be spiced up. A lot of gun owners here at least in my neck of the woods (ON) are fairly family oriented and/or high net worth who wouldn't take that risk.
The compensation is just a nicety at this point. They have proven that they can do whatever they want really.
As for NR->P, I can only compare to the plenty of holdouts for the original Firearms Act. Eventually they die out, a sad but true reality.
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u/Mirin_Gains Apr 02 '26
Nothing will happen until the SCC is done with the case.
And with a new government can change things but only if we keep the pressure on.
They really can't do anythimg they want. There is a line that will push the regular public to the polls.
For most people out of sight out of mind right now. Arresting Uncle Joe and ICU Doc Sammy won't go over well.
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u/Fuck_you_all22 Apr 02 '26
3 more years of liberal majority and brain dead canadian voters. When will we see a new government if ever?
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u/Agonizing-Stroke1812 Apr 02 '26
They really can't do anythimg they want. There is a line that will push the regular public to the polls.
I'm very curious as to where exactly that line is considering the events that have transpired over the past decade. Given all of the other issues this country faces I would be truly shocked if gun law moved the needle at all
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u/Mirin_Gains Apr 02 '26
Wherever it may be, defeatism is a self fufilling philosophy.
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u/Agonizing-Stroke1812 Apr 02 '26
The platitudes are nice and all. Sadly I see nothing that makes me believe that things will improve. We will see
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u/Mirin_Gains Apr 02 '26
We've done it before. But it took consistent, long term pressure. Not everyone can handle that I admit.
This isn't directed specifically at you but people need to keep their own defeat to themselves.
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u/HappyCan7250 Apr 02 '26
A lot of us holdouts are young. This issue is gonna get dragged out for a LONG time then. I still have hope CPC will get in eventually.
LPC provincially doesn't even exist in BC anymore basically after blowing up so badly in the earlier 2000s-2010s. I am hoping Carney will eventually ultimately bring about the downfall of the LPC. we might just have to live through one more term like what happened with Trudeau, before the whole country turns on them for once again, doing fuck all, like they always do. He's just still in his honeymoon phase and pumping out meaningless photo ops. The illusion of progress will eventually fade, as we're already seeing the pipeline can being kicked down the road like every other grand promise. Wait until he completely fucks up the USMCA negotiations too and really tanks the economy.
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u/Fuck_you_all22 Apr 02 '26
Carney has an aura of moderate or pragmatist. He does not have stanch haters like trudeau did. We will see how he fxxxs up. But having seen trudeau kept getting elected scandal after scandal, i am wondering about the collective intelligence of canadian voters or the integrity of our elections.
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u/thisghy Apr 02 '26
Canadians are majority left wing, majority complacent and majority stupid. They are just happy that their 'side' is in power and there is zero critical thought beyond that for a significant portion of the population. Its all about the feels, and right wing people are 'mean' so you cant vote for them.
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Apr 03 '26
He does not have stanch haters like trudeau did.
Well, not yet anyways. Give it a few years (or maybe more than a few... it took Trudeau about 6-7 years until the public was done with him).
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u/GoTakeaWalkinthePark Apr 02 '26
Maybe the CPC will finally run an electable candidate next election
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u/Remarkable_Vanilla34 Apr 02 '26
He shared a post celebrating poisoning gopher a couple days ago and i just shook my head. Like ya maybe farmers need this poison, I'm not a expert on the matter, but the optics of bragging and taking credit for it is just ridiculous. Like a lot of people don't understand the issue and will just see "conservatives push government to poison cute animals". Farmers know who to thank, why would you ever take credit for this publicly, like who is managing this guys PR.
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Apr 02 '26 edited 22d ago
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u/Fine-Tie2651 Apr 02 '26
And yet only 40% of the 137k guns that were expected for the buyback were declared. So you’re objectively wrong.
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Apr 02 '26
We don't even put criminals in jail. You would get community service at worst. Then apply for a pardon. Clean as a whistle again. My wife had a crime or 2 in the past. She's got her licence.
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u/Markthehare Apr 02 '26
This buy back program is being brought to you by the same people who brought us the Phoenix Pay System and Arrive Can app.
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u/EnvironmentBright697 Apr 02 '26
It’s not gonna happen. Especially with the straight of Hormuz situation. World is gonna be in chaos in a few months.
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u/Fine-Tie2651 Apr 02 '26
Look, there was no point in doing all of this theory because it was never happening in the first place. The police shortage in this country is enough to know that it was never happening or going to be enforced in the first place
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u/willysnax Apr 02 '26
I'd love to see how enthusiastic the officers (or whoever the hell they use..mailmen?) get the assignment to go out to the boonies in northern Alberta or Saskatchewan to "collect" their guns even if they applied for the program. Who the hell are they going to convince to do this job. You couldn't pay me enough. 😂
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u/rastamasta45 Apr 02 '26
Every officer I know told me they won’t do it not for morals but for safety. You’re essentially doing a high risk search every single time entering a home with rifles every single time to enforce a program that’s hugely hated. As my one buddy said “it’s a great way to not come home”
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u/willysnax Apr 02 '26
That's exactly it. I grew up with a hunter/trapper father who had his cabin 11 miles away from the next human being. Does anyone really want to guess at just how many guns and ammo these guys have when they show up. Not many of them are fans of the government or police at times. You'd have to be nuts to take that assignment. I don't blame anyone for not wanting to do it. Oh yeah, they also tend to drink a bit. They can be harmless but taking something they bought legally and own for a fraction of what they paid or no money at all isn't going to sit well.
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u/northernwolf3000 Apr 02 '26
Also how many return trips will be needed when folk are conveniently not at home?
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Apr 03 '26
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u/rastamasta45 Apr 03 '26
Please do tell 👀
What are they saying without doxxing of course? Like is it even getting off the ground?
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Apr 04 '26
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u/rastamasta45 Apr 04 '26
I spoke with public safety as well and they kept pushing export and when I explained to them 922r laws they were dumbfounded. They’re literally fucking morons.
My favourite is the logic, oh these are weapons of war for killing, so give it to the US….so if what you’re saying is true you don’t care about killing US citizens.
I can only imagine what kind of a mess it is…I mean according to demented chipmunk he wants retired cops to do the collection….
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u/833psz Apr 02 '26
We were always getting grandfathered. There was never going to be door to door collection. The buyback was about politics, optics and an easy win for team red. Except we didn’t roll over like they expected. So this will now all be quickly and quietly swept under the rug. If the blue team makes an issue of guns during the election, and goes for repealing, the libtards will rally the bleeding hearts.
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u/mischling2543 Apr 02 '26
according to Gemini
If you're just gonna use AI I'm not gonna bother reading
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u/IPSC_Canuck Apr 02 '26
I’ve been saying since the beginning, they have no intention of taking the guns away. Just dragging this shit out as long as they can to use as wedge issues in an election.
They’re trying to get the CPC to put forth policy that reverses this, so they can say “look at the death machines those right wing extremists want to give to people!!!”