Weekly Politics Thread

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[u/devilish_kevin_bacon]

did the bill have its second reading yet? Why is everyone mentioning June 7th as a day something will happen?

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/devilish_kevin_bacon]

June 7th is next committee meeting in which they could vote in favour of adopting the handgun freeze regulations that allows the government to OIC transfers.

[u/CalibreMag → u/Batsinvic888]

The committee doesn't need to vote for that happen, though. The regulations pass into law by OIC, issued by the Privy Council; that process doesn't need to involve SECU at all.

The gov has committed to the Regs following the standard parliamentary procedure, which means allowing 30 days for consultation. That's why the estimate is fall (the regs were introduced with 20 days remaining in the parliamentary calendar before the HoC prorogues for summer, so 20 days now, 10 in the fall when it sits again, then the Regs get OIC'ed in place). Again, the process could be suspended and the regs OIC'ed in any time, but that would be a departure from their stated plan.

SECU is only really responsible for formally reporting on the bill and any proposed amendments to the HoC between 2nd and 3rd readings.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

You are getting confused between Bill C-21 and the regulations proposed to Parliament. The LPC is trying, and likely will, ban transfers before C-21 passes.

Making of regulations

(4) A proposed regulation that has been laid pursuant to subsection (1) may be made

(a) on the expiration of thirty sitting days after it was laid; or

(b) where, with respect to each House of Parliament,

(i) the committee reports to the House, or

(ii) the committee decides not to conduct inquiries or public hearings.

It's not 30 sitting days and the committee reports. It's 30 sitting days or the committee reports. The committee reporting means them voting on it.

Edit: You should watch Runkle video on it.

[u/CalibreMag → u/Batsinvic888]

Oh, I'm not getting them confused; I just disagree with this rumour that SECU is going to report on the regs given the regs still have yet to be published - it'd be a bit weird. And, again, every one of these "any day now" rumours goes against the government's own statement that the regs are expected to come into effect in the Fall. I could be wrong though, but I just can't take rumour over a statement produced by Public Safety and repeated by Public Safety staff in the media briefing.

I agree with you, however, that the regs will come into effect before the bill. I doubt the bill will ever pass, and expect it to die on the writ.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

I doubt the bill will ever pass, and expect it to die on the writ.

You have much more optimism than me.

[u/CalibreMag → u/Batsinvic888]

The purpose of the bill is to produce a viable wedge for the next election, and that purpose is best served by using C-21 to let the gov pump the tires on how bad guns are for as long as possible without using Liberal funds. Then, use the build-up of that rhetoric as a stick against the CPC candidate, and as a carrot for their own electorate in the next election. Passing it would be less useful to that purpose, ergo, I don't think it's their intention. The regs coming in during the Fall would also be more useful to this strategy as well, since it'll let them reboot the "guns are bad" story when people start paying attention to politics again after the summer.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/CalibreMag]

I don't disagree, I just am not confident an election will be called.

I can't see the LPC numbers being good enough to warrant them calling an election. The Bloc and CPC will always be ready to vote down the LPC. The real question is the NDP, they need to recover financially and they need to see their poll number go up. I'm 50/50 on whether or not they actually vote non-confidence.

[u/TechnologyReady → u/Batsinvic888]

I have read (and listened, the Silvercore podcast was really good) and agree with a lot of CalibreMag's comments, and his estimation of the political calculus being done, etc.

But, I also feel, like you do, that the conclusion is not quite right. I think that what we will see, is that PP will take the CPC leadership, with overwhelming support (I don't strongly support him, this is not my bias talking) both in the CPC party, and in the wider Canadian electorate. This will scare the shit out of the LPC and the NDP, who will do whatever it takes to hold up this coalition government as long as possible.

I don't see the government falling before it's 4 years are up UNLESS there is some catastrophic, currently unforeseen event. ie: major economic melt-down, massive crippling protests, a serious escalation in the war and where the electorate realizes how badly prepared our military is (say, for example, we need jets or frigates). Something like that.

If Canada just keeps muddling through, and Trudeau doesn't shoot somebody on 5th Avenue (or maybe even if he does) the NDP will keep propping up the LPC until the natural end of this parliamentary session.