Weekly Politics Thread

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[u/Batsinvic888]

This is exactly what I expected. I'm guessing it will be introduced just before the next break in parliament. The parliamentary calendar says that the last day before September is June 23rd. I'm guessing the first two weeks of June.

So no national handgun ban, based on this comment. RIP Quebec but it looks like Ontario will avoid it for at least 4 years. The "new steps" could be anything from more red flag laws to magazine laws.

[u/drain-angel → u/Batsinvic888]

Not gonna lie, living in the City of Vancouver and if I had to choose I do hope that the rumor of an R cap is true rather than a municipal ban LOL. Or worse, they do both.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/drain-angel]

I can't see Horgan stopping municipalities from banning guns, so it will be up to the whim of city council. Honestly, Vancouver is probably the next most likely to ban after Quebec.

[u/drain-angel → u/Batsinvic888]

I've written to Horgan's office before and got a canned response back regarding this when it was first being discussed. I'm afraid you might be right, but I'd suspect with the whole museum thing & gas prices right now, Horgan is probably taking a hit and that might give the BCLP a shot in the arm in the rural areas that they lost to the BCNDP.

That being said, the BCLP would probably do the same shit, but it's about political theatre and optics. Or maybe this is just copium and the dipshit worthless COV council is going to fuck me over.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/drain-angel]

I think there is one bit of hope that emerged in the past few months. When we got the updated look at PAL numbers BC ranked 2nd highest in percentage of RPALs after Alberta. Clearly there is a large enough voting block that could turn an election, and that may impact the political decision.

Also the BCLP is in a strange place. They may even change the name to something along the lines of "The BC Party" signaling a commitment to a more centre-right/right wing party. A lot could go wrong for Horgan in the next 3 years.

[u/drain-angel → u/Batsinvic888]

That's true, especially given the seats in the Okanagan and FVRD can't afford to be lost and Horgan will piss off a lot of people there. But the province is running on fumes and only managed to report a tiny surplus because of how fucked housing is. Trudeau is waving a billion dollars to this program, I think he's going to take it, and that means COV and the Island = fucked. I do think if enough noise is made about this, maybe they'll back off but I doubt it.

Also personally I can not bring myself to ever support the BCLP. Especially after Clark. They can rebrand all they want, but they'll be Neoliberals at the end of the day, and they're not going to do jack shit about this either. Sometimes I wish there's a real pragmatist party here to keep both of them on their toes.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/drain-angel]

I live on the Island and I highly doubt anywhere other than downtown Victoria proper will ban handguns. Just the simple geography means that if Langford or Saanich were to ban handguns, and prevent travel through them, it would be impossible to travel to VFGPA. They would get a lot of pushback from basically the entire GVicA. The Nanaimo mayor said last year that he sees no reason to ban handguns and would rather have money for housing and homelessness. No way it happens on the rest of the island. It really is just Victoria and Vancouver proper that may ban handguns.

If all fails and handguns are banned in BC I'll just look to move to Alberta until I can get to the US.

[u/drain-angel → u/Batsinvic888]

I don't think there'd be a transport prohibition - because that'd make it impossible for someone living in North Van to make it to a range without having to go all the way north to Squamish, which is completely full. I think it would be just a storage/residential ban, or people would have to have them stored at LGS/central storage facilities (which is a terrible idea but whatever).

So given that, it's likely that it'd be Vancouver, Nainaimo, and Victoria (which was really what I was referring to as the Island). That's a lot of people.... including me :(. I'm planning a move to AB as well, but I need at least a few more years to be ready for that.

Why do you people drive 10 below the speed limit when the rest of the PNW drives 20 above by the way?

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/drain-angel]

I really don't think Nanaimo will ban them. There is too much business and the range is popular, which reminds me of the recent victory we had here. The BC Wildlife Federation actually managed to get the province to back down on Bill 4s range requirements. If they can do that I think they can persuade the province and municipalities to not ban handguns because it will very easily lead to the death of some ranges. That not only impacts sport shooters but also fudds and police. VFGPA is where the majority of the lower islands cops get their training and certification and I'm assuming the same is true for Nanaimo's range and police.

Why do you people drive 10 below the speed limit when the rest of the PNW drives 20 above by the way?

There is no consistency. On the Pat Bay driver's regularly go 10-30 over the speed limit. On certain parts of regular roads we go over 10 and other we go under 10. It's probably because there are a lot of old people here and they determine the flow of traffic.

[u/drain-angel → u/Batsinvic888]

Fair enough, but this suggests that there won't be a LEO exception (which is guaranteed to happen). For example, VPD's range is smack in the middle of Vancouver.

Man. I just hope we can mobilize and get enough pushback, but maybe I'm just so beat from the bullshit that constantly gets thrown at us and given the amount of money the Feds are willing to print for this makes me not confident.

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/drain-angel]

Long term, 10-25 years, I'm extremely pessimistic about firearms in Canada, which is one of many reasons I wish to not stay in Canada. But short term, next 10 years, I'm not too pessimistic. I'm not hopeful for the OIC court case, but I am for the FRT one, Ontario is looking to avoid a disastrous OLP victory, Alberta and Saskatchewan have already passed laws preventing municipal handgun bans, and the BCWF recent victory is a good sign of what they can accomplish.

On top of all of this in the extreme short term I don't expect the federal bill to actually pass until September 2023 at the absolute earliest, probably closer to December or early 2024.

I think you can really start panicking if the LPC is polling in strong majority territory come the next federal election.

[u/drain-angel → u/Batsinvic888]

I'm speaking mostly about if Horgan will let municipalities ban handguns. As you said, the BCWF managed to get the range thing struck down, but there's no money in it for the province, unlike this. I guess I'll try writing to the Premier's office again.

In general, I'm pessimistic as well, and I'm considering leaving as an option but for the time being we gotta work with what we got.

Also, why would you think it would take that long? I'm slightly aware on how the legislative process works, but not sure exactly what drags legislation out this long. Mind giving me an explainer?

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/drain-angel]

I'm basing my timeline off of C-71, which was the last major gun bill to pass. That took 18 months, and the changes in this upcoming bill will be even more drastic.

You also have to factor in when Parliament doesn't sit. Once this bill gets introduced it will have basically no time to do anything before summer break. So you can kind of think of the process really starting in September. Then they have a winter break and another summer break. The absolute earliest I can see it pass would be after the 2023 summer break. The absolute latest I could see it pass is after the 2024 summer break. So my guess is that it finishes and gets royal assent sometime in spring of 2024.

One thing that helps drag the process along is the investigations the Senate will likely do. They are pretty much a rubber stamp most of the time, but with big things they like to take their time. For example they were going to deep dive the Emergency Act before it got canned and they are very likely to do a deep dive on the new Internet bill.

Edit: Also I will probably pick this conversion up in the morning if you wish. It's pretty late now.

[u/drain-angel → u/Batsinvic888]

Nah, that reply was very good enough. I wasn't aware about the long ass breaks Parliament takes, which basically answers it. Can't find an answer why they're only in Parliament for like half the year but...

Thank you!

[u/Batsinvic888 → u/drain-angel]

I don't know for sure, but it may be a historical reason they only sit half the year. I know that's the case in the US. Before the invention of rail it was impossible for people to meet their constituency and be in Washington for over 6 months. I wouldn't be surprised if our parliament breaks had a similar origin.