r/canadaguns • u/AutoModerator • May 23 '22

Weekly Politics Thread

Please post all your Politics or Ban-related ideas, initiatives, comments, suggestions, news articles, and recommendations in this thread. Unless new information is published in the media, recurring articles related to the gov'ts ***possible*** legislation are to be posted here. These threads will be weekly, until it's necessary for another per-week.

Previous politics threads can be found here. Previous threads can be found here.

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u/Batsinvic888 Bats888 on YouTube May 26 '22

Long term, 10-25 years, I'm extremely pessimistic about firearms in Canada, which is one of many reasons I wish to not stay in Canada. But short term, next 10 years, I'm not too pessimistic. I'm not hopeful for the OIC court case, but I am for the FRT one, Ontario is looking to avoid a disastrous OLP victory, Alberta and Saskatchewan have already passed laws preventing municipal handgun bans, and the BCWF recent victory is a good sign of what they can accomplish.

On top of all of this in the extreme short term I don't expect the federal bill to actually pass until September 2023 at the absolute earliest, probably closer to December or early 2024.

I think you can really start panicking if the LPC is polling in strong majority territory come the next federal election.

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u/drain-angel BC May 26 '22

I'm speaking mostly about if Horgan will let municipalities ban handguns. As you said, the BCWF managed to get the range thing struck down, but there's no money in it for the province, unlike this. I guess I'll try writing to the Premier's office again.

In general, I'm pessimistic as well, and I'm considering leaving as an option but for the time being we gotta work with what we got.

Also, why would you think it would take that long? I'm slightly aware on how the legislative process works, but not sure exactly what drags legislation out this long. Mind giving me an explainer?

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u/Batsinvic888 Bats888 on YouTube May 26 '22

I'm basing my timeline off of C-71, which was the last major gun bill to pass. That took 18 months, and the changes in this upcoming bill will be even more drastic.

You also have to factor in when Parliament doesn't sit. Once this bill gets introduced it will have basically no time to do anything before summer break. So you can kind of think of the process really starting in September. Then they have a winter break and another summer break. The absolute earliest I can see it pass would be after the 2023 summer break. The absolute latest I could see it pass is after the 2024 summer break. So my guess is that it finishes and gets royal assent sometime in spring of 2024.

One thing that helps drag the process along is the investigations the Senate will likely do. They are pretty much a rubber stamp most of the time, but with big things they like to take their time. For example they were going to deep dive the Emergency Act before it got canned and they are very likely to do a deep dive on the new Internet bill.

Edit: Also I will probably pick this conversion up in the morning if you wish. It's pretty late now.

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u/drain-angel BC May 27 '22

Nah, that reply was very good enough. I wasn't aware about the long ass breaks Parliament takes, which basically answers it. Can't find an answer why they're only in Parliament for like half the year but...

Thank you!

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u/Batsinvic888 Bats888 on YouTube May 27 '22

I don't know for sure, but it may be a historical reason they only sit half the year. I know that's the case in the US. Before the invention of rail it was impossible for people to meet their constituency and be in Washington for over 6 months. I wouldn't be surprised if our parliament breaks had a similar origin.