r/canadaguns • u/AutoModerator • Feb 06 '23

Weekly Politics Thread

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9

u/Cooliecollie Feb 10 '23

What do you all think the chances of liberals pulling another stunts like banning semiautos through OIC or tabling a stand alone bill?

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u/FunkyFrunkle Feb 10 '23 edited Feb 10 '23

It’s honestly difficult to say. The Trudeau liberals have a reputation of making promises and delivering on none of them really.

Are they going to try again? It’s a liberal minority government fighting for its life trying to stay stylish and relevant. Yeah. They’re going to try again. Almost every liberal government has to meddle with guns in some way.

But I think this was a genuine embarrassment for them on some level. It made them look incompetent and public opinion on gun control, although varied, seems to somewhat pale in comparison to things like bail reform. Make no mistake, they don’t feel sorry for not consulting. They’re sorry that they got caught. They’re probably pissed that bail reform is taking more of a lead on the issue of violent crime than guns are. I don’t think they were planning on that particular chicken coming home as soon as it did.

With semi autos, I think there’s honestly going to be few exceptions. The SKS is probably going to be left off the list (for now) because it was more or less at the center of the controversy. Guns like the 1908 Mauser are almost certainly being left off because that was the whole reason why they were put in there. To be taken off. Bargaining chips. They’ll remove the controversial ones but it’s still shit because 95% of what was on the amendments are going to be back on there. wE tOoK tHe HuNtInG rIfLEs oFf!

The shooting sport is never going to be safe under any liberal government thanks to party lines.

However, I’m going to offer a little copium. It’s worth remembering there still is no working plan for a buyback or confiscation. I’m getting the impression that there isn’t any real sense of urgency behind any of this. The liberals were in more of a hurry to invest a couple of billion dollars into that company that didn’t exist and their excuse for being in such a hurry was “climate change is happening”. So why are we not seeing the same sense of urgency where people are allegedly actively dying from legal guns?

Political baiting and distractions is my guess. It was a nice distraction when people started asking which 12 MP’s received funding from China, and it lured conservatives into a rage pit to make them look like American republicans. If the bill fails, you can always blame it on conservative cock blocking and use it as a cudgel for a very possible election. They just have it on simmer to get some good election fodder. I think that’s another reason why they didn’t bother to do this when they had a majority. This has been a campaign promise since 2015. Why wait until you have a minority and need to bank on the support of other parties? They could have rammed this right on through in 2015. It doesn’t make sense.

My theory is there was no need to break out gun control when they had a majority. Gun control is the liberals political fire alarm. The amendments were dropped last minute because there wasn’t enough outrage coming from conservatives to capitalize on prior, and it was a good political diversion. That’s when Trudeau tried to capitalize on the “misinformation” thing and it blew up in his face. There was a gamble being made that your average person who doesn’t care about guns wouldn’t bother to read the bill and understand what they’re looking at. Then they can come back, remove the amendments and say “we’re listening to hunters” and make the conservatives look insane.

  • Promise gun control

  • Get elected

  • Drag it out

  • Wait until you have a minority

  • Announce gun control

  • Go big to put on a fireworks show for your urban voters

  • Lure conservatives into a rage

  • “Compromise” and make it look like they’re listening to gun owners. Put out fireworks

  • Win support

  • Drag it out until election. Drop the writ

  • Gun control took so long and failed because conservatives. Don’t actually have to commit to doing anything

  • Better luck next time. We need a majority. Pls vote 4 us

  • Get out of jail free

Needless to say they never did their homework. I genuinely don’t think they expected the SKS to be so commonly used as a hunting rifle and that’s what got the FN involved in the fray.

Edit: Expanded and clarified my little theory. Thanks for coming to my Ted talk.

1

u/Batsinvic888 Bats888 on YouTube Feb 10 '23

I think that's a pretty bang on summary of what happened and why. You should just save this for future use.

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u/[deleted] Feb 10 '23 edited Feb 10 '23

Gun control took so long and failed because conservatives. Don’t actually have to commit to doing anything

We're here currently and the Liberals have backed themselves into a corner- they can't use guns as the wedge issue that they did before because they can't pretend that their "evergreen definition" isn't going to affect the very people Mendicino claimed it wouldn't.

Now the narrative has become "REAL Canadian hunters.." but nobody is buying it.

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u/FunkyFrunkle Feb 10 '23 edited Feb 10 '23

Which I don’t think they actually counted on happening.

Lip service will be paid to temporarily placate the gun control busy bodies, but I think we aren’t going to hear much for a while. They’re no doubt regrouping behind closed doors and trying to figure out the least worst option because I seriously don’t know how they’re realistically going to pull this off. Nobody wants to get involved especially in something mired in controversy. The police said they’re not interested since they cannot take on a project of this scope without prejudicing other commitments. Canada Post said no. The military cannot be deployed on Canadian soil unless they declare martial law. Even so they said no. The police don’t want people showing up to the police station en masse with guns.

With all that being said, non-compliance is going to be biblical. How do you deal with that?

I don’t know how a half-crippled liberal minority government being propped up by another party while DROWNING in a sea of incompetence and scandal is going to pull it off. If they were so desperate to do this, why the hell would you wait until you’re a minority? Gun control has historically been a monumental undertaking. You’d need a majority to do something like this.

9

u/Bushido_Plan Feb 10 '23

Honestly? 99%. Probably as close to 100% as it can be. Make no mistake, it was both a calculation of the Liberals to put the amendments as a "test" to get a feel for what the public and other political parties will do, while being able to retract it to garner support to pass the original C21 bill (also lets their allies such as the NDP save face by having them go after the amendments so that they can then still support C21).

If not the current Trudeau-led Liberal government, then no doubt in the future whenever the next Liberal government is in power then. And the one after that, and so on and so forth, slowly wittling down the industry.

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u/GinnAdvent Feb 10 '23

I thought it was fairly obvious that no matter how Liberal spin it, they will always gain something from it not matter the outcome, because they can always come back with another reason plus their old reason for the "greater good" speech.

It's better to get Conservative into majority, and rewrite the Firearm Act so it's has a perm stance instead of being going back and forth.

3

u/[deleted] Feb 10 '23

Rewriting the firearms act is really the only way to finally settle this. A few good clear cut definitions of what is prohib, restricted and non restricted based on mechanical capabilities and not vibes would hopefully rationalize the conversation

9

u/[deleted] Feb 10 '23

High and it'll likely happen soon. The Liberals took an L on the two amendments they wanted but have promised their pet gun control groups another run at the same legislation, and probably a standalone bill.

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u/Brilliant_Gift1917 Feb 10 '23

High and it'll likely happen soon.

I'm seeing a lot of people say this, and then immediately after seeing a lot of people saying they're going to wait at least until C21 goes through to try again. Both have compelling arguments as to why it will/won't happen soon, so I'm just confused as to who to believe.

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u/Batsinvic888 Bats888 on YouTube Feb 10 '23

so I'm just confused as to who to believe.

No one has a correct answer. "Expect the worst, hope for the best" as been pretty reliable.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 10 '23

It isn't good for us either way, and the only way out is an election.

4

u/Batsinvic888 Bats888 on YouTube Feb 10 '23

It depends. We aren't going to see any amendments to C-21 (because of the out of order situation), and I think the LPC would like to take a win by passing C-21 after they nearly killed it all.

I highly doubt we see an OIC, especially before the court case. We should have the results of that case (it will likely be appealed no matter what) by the end of May. Depending on the decision, the LPC may be able to ban whatever it wants via OIC without explanation. If they get that outcome, then I think we will see an OIC as soon as some American shooting happens for them to piggyback on. However, if they don't get that outcome (even if they win the judge may limit the scope of future OIC bans), I don't think we see any OIC bans. Also,, aside from legal implications, it is incredibly poor optics to ban guns through executive measure when your democratic attempts failed. TL:DR on OIC is that it's possible, but not likely.

A future stand-alone bill is damn near guaranteed. The question is when. They do these gun bans because they impress dumb ass suburbanites and it appeases their anti-gun lobby friends. However, their failed attempts with G4/G46 has left a sour taste in many peoples mouth (people who would normally be supportive). Couple that with the LPC being seen as significantly out of touch and focusing on the wrong things, they can't risk further damaging their brand. I also think when they do want the attention back on guns, they want all the attention. So introducing it while another bill is currently in progress doesn't make sense. So, with all that said, I think we could see the standalone bill be presented in late 2023.

Here is something else to keep in mind, gun bills typically take 15-20 months to pass. If we are generous and use the next schedule election as the cutoff, the guaranteed DOA date is June 2024, and if we're lucky, it could be as early as January 2024. However, as I've said, I would shocked if we didn't get an election before 2025. The NDP should easily have enough money by Q1 2024 to run an election. Right now, the best thing we can hope for is a standalone bill because it is extremely likely to die in an election. We don't really have a choice, but all of our eggs are in the "CPC wins the next election" bucket. Because if they don't, say goodbye to all of your semi-autos.

8

u/No-Adhesiveness-9866 Feb 10 '23

I’m honesty appalled that this government has banned guns twice via OIC. It is blatantly undemocratic to use an OIC to avoid voting on issues

8

u/[deleted] Feb 10 '23

Liberal voters are a different breed

8

u/[deleted] Feb 10 '23

As long as they're in Ottawa they're going to continue to try it. But in the near future, very low chance.

6

u/Cooliecollie Feb 10 '23

You contribute a lot on this sub lately. appreciate your input. Let's hope liberals get booted (or voted out) and stay out for long time.

6

u/[deleted] Feb 10 '23

the other site I use is filled with literal shit so I've migrated here

4

u/Apples_and_Overtones Your feet suck and so do you Feb 10 '23

Fairly high, but probably not too soon. They went all-in too early and it shot them in the foot.

There's possibility they'll reintroduce the amendments but "lessened," though it'll probably be recognized as out of scope for the bill.

Once C21 inevitably gets through the process they may do an OiC again.

6

u/Brilliant_Gift1917 Feb 10 '23

They went all-in too early and it shot them in the foot.

They've also basically told every gun owner - from the fudds who still voted liberal to the tacticool larpers, that they want everyone's guns and none are safe, not even single-shot rifles. Them clearly stating they intend to try again doesn't help either.