Recurring Canadaguns Politics and Debate Thread

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[u/Dill_Pickle_Tears]

Anyone with real parliamentary/legislative knowledge have any guesses as to how the government could respond to the OICs being repealed?

I know most say they’d ram through bans via a bill, but I’d imagine that this could take much longer depending on the stipulations from the SCC

[u/FunkyFrunkle → u/Dill_Pickle_Tears]

Nobody here would have that kind of knowledge, except for maybe [u/Calibremag](u/Calibremag), who has put in an extraordinary amount of work on behalf of this community and has a more detailed knowledge of how the government works beyond that of the layman, due to his years of working in the industry and regularly interfaces with them.

However, I do like to maintain a degree of optimism. In my opinion, they could have passed legislation long before now, but haven’t. The liberals were only ever a handful of seats away from a majority before they got it, and it wouldn’t have been much trouble to scrape together a handful of votes to pass gun control legislation. It didn’t really move the needle a considerable amount for us I think.

My own speculation is based on what I’ve seen, not so much on what they say. I’m going to list out a few things I’ve noticed, and you can judge for yourself if where I’m going makes sense.

These are in no particular order.

Firstly, Although Carney mentioned that they would “reinvigorate” the buyback, he has pretty much sidestepped it ever since, even outright skimming past it when asked about what they plan to do about violent crime. Instead talking about border security and bail reform. When asked about the SKS, he again passed the buck onto the RCMP and remained non-committal about it. To me, this looks like he’s trying to establish distance between himself and the program. He hasn’t shown much enthusiasm for this program unlike Trudeau, who mentioned it as a core strategy every chance he got.

Does this mean he’s gearing up to abandon it? I would give it a soft no. This seems more like he’s preparing for this program to fall to pieces, but you never know.

Second, the program itself still faces massive provincial opposition as well as opposition from a litany of police forces. It’s only a handful of jurisdictions scattered across the country that have collection points up and running. Logistics and financials are still huge issues, and legislation wouldn’t do anything to fix this. All legislation would do is cement the headache.

Third, the government largely has no idea who has what when it comes to non-restricted guns which goes a considerable distance in making this unenforceable in any practical way. In addition, our justice and corrections systems are not equipped or designed to handle a massive, potential influx of cases which is why I think some of the provinces got involved with the SCC case. Their Attorney Generals are likely very aware of the ramifications this policy could have on their provincial courts and likely don’t want it to happen.

Fourth, every time MP Provost appeared on camera to speak for the program since she became MP, she seems barely composed. I would go as far to say she looks stressed out. Frantic. Her body language proves this with the self-soothing gestures.

I would have to imagine that an MP who is not only a Secretary of State, but the most prominent figure of Canadian gun control would almost certainly be involved or at the very least have more intimate knowledge of the minutiae of this policy behind all the closed doors. From what I’ve seen, she does not come across as having all the confidence in the world that this program is going to cross the finish line and this was apparent enough when she was practically pleading with gun owners to rat out their friends and family.

Five. The whole thing is headed to the Supreme Court which despite the cynicism of the doomers here, this whole thing stands a very real chance of falling apart for the government. Carney mentioned that they were going to “wait” and see what the court decision is so they can “see what we can do within the confines of the law”, or something to that effect.

Six, Public Safety was one of the hardest hit ministries with cuts. A bunch of people got laid off, and the biggest driver for recent hiring within public safety is the gun ban. Do with this information as you will.

Finally, the seventh point. Our current economic climate is not conducive to spending untold fortunes of taxpayer money on a gun ban. At some point someone is going to have to recognize this and I think they already have. As mentioned in point 5, they laid off a bunch of people within public safety.

So all in all, I think the government would likely back away from this for a bit, but I would expect them to try again in a more subtle approach once things have cooled off. The problem with this program is not enough time was spent actually researching the feasibility of banning this many guns. Instead they went all in on the glamour and glitz of announcing bans while doing the heavy lifting on the fly.

[u/New-Replacement-2352 → u/FunkyFrunkle]

It’s crazy how much this is mirroring the long gun registration. Extremely expensive, low compliance rate and no way to enforce it. It’s gonna die a long slow death too. You think they would have learned a lesson or two from the LGR but I guess not, smh.

If registering millions of guns was too hard for them, where did they get the idea that stealing millions of gun away from people was a good idea. These people are profoundly stupid, don’t forget that.

[u/Lumindan → u/New-Replacement-2352]

You think they would have learned a lesson or two from the LGR

They did learn a lesson. You can burn billions with zero consequences.

These people are profoundly stupid, don’t forget that.

Do not mistake malice for stupidity. They're pushing this stuff for a reason. No one there actually cares about public safety but they have an agenda and it's been made clear (especially with the leaks)

[u/Dill_Pickle_Tears → u/Lumindan]

Only positive revelation from the ministers hot mic moment is that they are only doing this to keep Quebec ridings locked down for the party - and to align with their principles of being a party that follows through.

That being said, I say this is positive because it’s become clear that backing poly and continuing with the bans has very little political value right now; specifically, gun control is being overshadowed by the LPC’s bad environmental policy, exacerbated by the wildfires, as well as ongoing US-Canada relations continuing to sour.

In other words, many Canadians couldn’t give a rats behind about guns when our forests are burning and costs of living continue to rise. Full stop.

To add to this, Carneys reelection chances and approval ratings rest on how he handles the US-Canada situation going forward - or at least to a much greater degree. This will be a much greater focus going forward.

[u/Office_Responsible → u/Lumindan]

What leaks are you talking about?

[u/Lumindan → u/Office_Responsible]

The leak of our public safety minister.

Gary's little oopsie just confirmed what we all knew.

[u/Office_Responsible → u/Lumindan]

Oh that leak, okay I thought I missed something

[u/Dill_Pickle_Tears → u/New-Replacement-2352]

I think it will go the same way. I also think the AR-15 will continue its turbulent history and be flipped back to restricted. If you read up on this, it narrowly escaped prohibition via OIC as it was determined to have legitimate sporting purposes. Then it flipped to non restricted briefly before going back to restricted

[u/EnvironmentBright697 → u/FunkyFrunkle]

Calibremag had mentioned on X that he’s heard from someone in public safety that they are working on legislation.

[u/Lumindan → u/EnvironmentBright697]

We all knew this was coming.

SCC rules in our favor? They'll push a new bill.

SCC rules against us? They'll push a new bill.

Don't you love majority governments?

[u/Office_Responsible → u/Lumindan]

How I see it is that regardless of the SCC ruling we will get fucked by legislation that makes the OICs look tame. Polys poster girl didn’t get added to parliament for nothing. Personally I’m waiting for the hammer to drop. In the mean time I will continue to shoot what I have and maybe pick up some more. Nothing else we can do.

[u/Lumindan → u/Office_Responsible]

Pretty much. Just keep hanging on, get more people to get their PALs, keep supporting local businesses etc.

It's a long battle.

[u/Office_Responsible → u/Lumindan]

More people with their PALs is great but ultimately I don’t think it matters. The LPC has an agenda to push, the number of PAL holders is irrelevant to that especially with a majority government. Also my LGS is really struggling and people just aren’t buying guns like they used to (according to them), plus most of what we have now is shit (my opinion). Gone are the days of my sub-1k AR-15.

[u/FunkyFrunkle → u/EnvironmentBright697]

They’ve been saying that for a while to be fair. In fact, that was the plan going as far back as 2020 but nothing much has been said about it lately. They’ve been on summer recess so we’ll see what happens in the fall.

[u/CalibreMag → u/FunkyFrunkle]

I'll have more to say on this soon... just need to get all my t's crossed, and i's dotted.

But I can say it's unlikely we hear much, if anything, on the gun file this fall.

[u/Dill_Pickle_Tears → u/EnvironmentBright697]

Working on drafting legislation doesn’t necessarily mean it makes it to become a bill to eventually become law. It’s possible it’ll take so long there’s another election by then.

Only my opinion, but if they can’t articulate how new legislation will serve to correctly amend or reform C21 in a meaningful way, it may not make it through the House of Commons.

Sure, they have a majority, but again it could still result in mass non-compliance or result in liberal MPs abstaining due to how unpopular the bill is.

[u/son_of_ghandicap → u/FunkyFrunkle]

Damn you for giving me hope, Brother. Damn you! lol

[u/FunkyFrunkle → u/son_of_ghandicap]

Hope isn’t a bad thing, it’s managing expectations that’s hard. Things aren’t always going to turn out 100% right for us, and things aren’t always going to turn out 100% right for them either.

What keeps me going is the sheer difficulty and opposition this program faces. It’s been in the oven for six years, seven by the time the SCC renders its decision.

This isn’t a program that’s going well, this isn’t a program that has a positive consensus around the country.

[u/JTrudeausLeftNut → u/Dill_Pickle_Tears]

From a legal perspective, the argument is that the legislation is ultra vires vis a vis the Firearms Act. Essentially, the CCFR is saying that the federal government enacted a GIC/regulation that Parliament didnt give it the authority to do. Alternatively, they are also arguing that there was an infringement on charter rights (not up to date on the argument, assuming vagueness?)

Assuming CCFR win, the options are:

1. Reformulate the regulation to comply with the Firearms Act and the Charter

2. Let the regulation die and do nothing.

3. Change the Firearms Act to allow them to do what they want.

Each option has a political cost and could take some time. Additionally, the SCC can "delay" its ruling to give the Government time to address the issue (e.g. new legislation).

[u/Cre_AK47 → u/Dill_Pickle_Tears]

It really depends on what the Supreme Court tells the government.

1: They could tell them to fully scrap it, then the ban ends immediately as the OIC bans were never legal.

2: SCC could also say the OIC bans were illegal but then issue a stay of proceedings, giving the government 12 months to pass legislation to continue the ban, with the OIC still remaining in effect until the 12 month legislation stipulation.

3: Lastly they could to get this tell us to get fucked but in a different way than what the federal court of appeal ruled...

I'm thinking #2 is most likely what's going to happen. There's bound to be some anti-gun judicial activists who reside on the Supreme Court, who also suck up to the Liberals/Laurentian Elite whenever they can even if this would set a very dangerous precedent of giving the executive branch criminal law power as long as Parliament designates it in law...

[u/Agonizing-Stroke1812 → u/Dill_Pickle_Tears]

They have already destroyed a bunch of guns in BC and are actively collecting in ON. The two highest prohib count provinces by raw count. There is no turning back I'm afraid

[u/Dill_Pickle_Tears → u/Agonizing-Stroke1812]

I’m not so sure. There’s no turning back for sure with respect to any firearms declared and already turned in. That said, the likely positive SCC decision could result in a pause on any further bans and would most would be weary of turning their guns in at that point.

What I’d like to know is: what REALLY happens if the SCC reverses the OICs?

I really don’t think the fed response will be the swift and definitive parliamentary reversal many think. It’s more likely something slower or flaccid IMO. Making large changes would require time and they already caught considerable flak for rushing things like they have since carney was elected