r/canadaguns Mar 20 '26

News / Politics / Activism Declarations as of March 19 2026

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76

u/rastamasta45 Mar 20 '26

We’re looking at a compliance of 31% using the governments woefully under counted number. The real compliance rate of 4% or 2% depending on the real number of affected firearms.

45

u/Acceptable_Visit_115 Mar 20 '26

31% of restricted firearms included in the 2020 OIC (107,000), that is.

Industry estimates puts it at ~2 million firearms so yeah, lol

23

u/Ov3rReadKn1ght0wl Mar 20 '26

Was going to say lol. This is far below sub-50% compliance for the buyback. With the budget already thoroughly blown, I don't know how they intend to actually collect let alone pay out. Which is really pathetic for a program that they pushed so hard.

5

u/Golanthanatos Mar 20 '26

So assuming these are all restricted that auto declared, or people had no choice, is that even all of them?

18

u/Disastrous-Panic-87 Mar 20 '26

Not even close. There are over 105 000 formerly known registered restricted firearms. And that was before they banned many non-restricted firearms.

3

u/Ov3rReadKn1ght0wl Mar 20 '26

Far from it. Nationally, this is still less than half of the lowball projection of around 140k firearms.

1

u/Apples_and_Overtones Your feet suck and so do you Mar 20 '26

IIRC how it works is that it'll "auto declare" the restricteds but doesn't submit anything. That is up to the user.

4

u/luckeycat Mar 20 '26

If thats their estimate then they didn't do ANY homeowrk and have no idea who has what.

3

u/Barbarian_818 Mar 20 '26

Well, the entire program smacks of an irrational, even prejudiced approach to firearms. So ignorance on the part of the decision makers is to be expected.

Don't get me wrong, there are clearly some midlevel folks who know a lot about the firearms program and how the FRT works. At some point, a policy maker points to a scary tacticool firearm and says "ban everything that is related to this" and that knowledgeable functionary does an excellent job of identifying everything even cosmetically similar.

The result is a thoroughly curated list, but supporting a program that is self sabotaging.

2

u/drugstoremechanic Mar 20 '26

I have said it before, and I will say it again: they have no idea what they're doing.

2

u/613mitch Mar 20 '26

We’re looking at a compliance of 31% using the governments woefully under counted number.

Not necessarily, because there's no guarantee these declarations are restricted. Anyone signing up with an NR dilutes the total amount of firearms to be declared. We'll need to know how many of those declared are actually restricted.

1

u/Rangerjon94 Mar 20 '26

True but I suppose we have to always consider that this already low turnout is "padded" to some degree but I take your point the depth of the padding is pretty unknownable.