Assuming the coming Supreme Court challenge rules in the governments favour, are we expecting OIC #4?

[u/Flat-Dark-Earth]

Worst case scenario, the Supreme Court ruling rules in favour of the government, deciding all previous bans were just.

What do we expect? Another OIC wrapping up the remaining semi-autos by model?

New legislation announced banning firearms by newly defined features?

[u/uber_poutine]

I think a lot depends on how badly the LPC needs the urban Quebec vote, how thin their majority is, and how many other (read: real) problems urban québécois have. I don't think Carney cares a whole lot either way, I think he thinks he has bigger fish to fry.

Assuming it's politically necessary, if the SCC rules in favour, expect an OiC for  all currently available detachable-magazine-fed semi-automatics, though possibly only limited to centre fire. Expect revolver-style long guns and the SKS to get an honourable mention, despite not entirely meeting the definition.

The big problem with the above is that unless they update classification guidelines to move that functional definition from non-restricted/restricted to prohibited, it's a game of named model whack-a-mole. If it's politically necessary, expect a change in overall guidelines, followed by a variety of cope guns to work around these changes (similar, but not identical to the button-release semi-autos that we saw in Australia).

If either comes to pass, expect to see mass non-compliance, possibly flagrant.

[u/BearlyDraconic01 → u/uber_poutine]

The SCC is not like the SCOTUS. They do not really do things in a partisan way and regularly rule against the government. They are nowhere near as partisan as the US. I think we have a really good chance here.