r/canadaguns • u/Appropriate-Regret-6 • 1d ago
Misc Any retailers taking pre-orders of OIC prohibited models, in anticipation of a positive court case in November?
I'm hoping the court case goes our way later this year, and if it does... There's going to be a sudden rush & huge backlog of orders getting placed.
I'd literally give my left testicle for a Ruger 9mm carbine, and would be happy to prepay or pay a deposit, to be able to pick it up immediately if (when... hopefully) the OIC's are struck down.
I haven't seen anything like this online - any of you fine people heard of any retailers doing this?
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u/beastslayer2563 1d ago edited 1d ago
The court case isn’t in Nov, that’s just the hearing. It’s probably gonna be around this time next year, maybe a little earlier. I feel like if the SCC goes in our favour, the Liberal Government is just gonna ban them again before we get our hands on anything. Don’t get your hopes up, there is no logic in our government.
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u/0672216 1d ago
I have to agree. These bans are not going away until the liberals are gone and politically irrelevant, and even then it’s an uphill battle. If I’m understanding correctly, the SCC case is mostly about the mechanism they used to change the status of the individual firearms, not about the bans themselves. With their current majority they can easily just write permanent legislation and make those OICs even more difficult to reverse in the future.
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u/Appropriate-Regret-6 1d ago
So if they could write permanent legislation about this so the OIC issue is irrelevant... Why don't they? It will probably save a lot of time and trouble if the supreme court case just disappeared. Maybe they want the supreme Court to rule in their favor, so they know they can use OIC however they want in future (and if they lose, they just change the law anyway)
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u/0672216 1d ago
I think they’ll just wait and see. If the scc rules against them I just can’t see them dropping the issue entirely. It’s also not a very popular policy so they might just use it as an excuse to move on. Who knows at this point… I just don’t trust liberals to make a rational decision on anything involving firearms.
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u/BonaFideDueDiligence 1d ago
They seem to have cold feet about reopening the whole firearms fight. I actually think if we were to win at the SCC, the government might be more cautious about pushing the issue again, at least while Carney is there. He seems pretty reluctant to get dragged further into this whole mess.
When he was asked about the SKS situation last month, he basically framed it as an RCMP issue, which, as everyone here knows, is not a thing. That makes me think he may not want to personally own another major firearms fight unless he feels politically forced to. And right now, with no immediate election pressure, there may not be much incentive for him to pick that fight again.
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u/Eglitarian 1d ago
Call it a hope, but that’s my hope. The SCC striking down the OIC also gives the current LPC a convenient way out of forking over all the money still to be spent on the buyback program without having to make it look like they just changed their minds or backpedaled because the gun owners are mad. I’m sure the current government would rather spend the projected $1B left to go on the program somewhere else. The fact that of the projected $1.8 Billion in costs only $64 million was actually earmarked for compensation is absolutely insane. Costing taxpayers $25 000 per gun collected (when the gun owners would only get a few hundred at most) should have sunk the government as it was if the Canadian public were any more in the know about it.
For the $800 million we spent on administering the program to date, we could have reinvested it in border measures to stamp out smuggling or beefed up guns and gangs units in the cities to get the actual illegal guns and their users off the street. But of course that kind of stuff doesn’t look as cool during election season or during a press conference.
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u/beastslayer2563 1d ago edited 1d ago
I have to agree too. The OIC’s are relatively easy to reverse, if we had a PC government they could maybe reverse them. Now if the SCC goes our way, the libs are probably gonna look for a way to permanently ban them by making it law, like the handgun freeze, which is gonna make it a hell of a lot harder for the PC’s to reverse it, IF they even want to reverse it. It would likely cause backlash from the people, because Canadians are stupid and guns are scary, 😱 I don’t think the Cons want that, as it would lower their support. Even then Carney has like a 60% approval rating, so it won’t be for another decade (Canadians usually keep PM’s they like for around ten years) until there’s even a small chance that PC gets in.
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u/Appropriate-Regret-6 1d ago
Well that's depressing
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u/beastslayer2563 1d ago
One more thing, since the SCC is dragging into 2027, it seems that there is a standstill on gun bans, so it’s not all bad. I think Carney said it himself. Our guns are seemingly safe for around another year and 90 days.
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u/SpectreBallistics Spectre Ballistics International (Verified) 1d ago
Nope. No shop would do that.
Even if they had inventory the mess of issuing refunds when the court case fails wouldn't be worth taking pre-orders. For many retailers issuing a refund isn't free. The credit card fees are often not refundable. It also takes time for someone to do it and labour isn't free.
If the case wins and ARs etc are back on the menu, what stock is in Canada would be sold instantly anyway.
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u/Appropriate-Regret-6 1d ago
The way I was looking at it, was if a store has $100,000 of capital "locked up" that can't be sold, someone (or multiple someone's) paying to reserve that now frees up the capital. At worse they could simply stick it in a high interest account for a year or two. Credit card fees is an interesting one though - could work around that with cash-only payments and refunds.
That said, it would be a pain in the ass to manage. I figure from your username that you're a manufacturer or retailer (?), so I'll defer to your expertise.
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u/SpectreBallistics Spectre Ballistics International (Verified) 1d ago
Yes we make guns, including ones that were prohibited by OIC.
The capital isn't freed up with pre-orders. The responsible thing to do is sit on the cash until you can ship the goods. With OIC banned firearms it's a slim chance you'd ever be able to ship. ATRS took pre-orders for a gun that was FRT banned. No one got a refund and the company is now defunct.
Don't pre-order stuff.
If the OIC is reversed it will take very little time to get stuff to market.
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u/beastslayer2563 1d ago
Even if AR’s are back, there’s no way I’m getting one, as they’re R and at this point there’s no reason to trust our government knowing I have an AR after all this bullshite. I’d look for a NR and then tragically lose them in a boating accident.
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u/SpectreBallistics Spectre Ballistics International (Verified) 1d ago
A 12" AR is pretty sweet and worth being restricted. Also AR's are cheap compared to other things.
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u/Longjumping_Rain_483 1d ago
Isn't the decision expected to be sometime in 2027? Also I haven't heard of that being a thing, and I feel like most shops wouldn't entertain this
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u/Appropriate-Regret-6 1d ago
Yeah I'm just learning this. Apparently the first hearing is on November, but the entire case will drag into 2027...
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u/BonaFideDueDiligence 1d ago
No one actually knows. In theory, they could decide the case the same day as the hearing, although that would be very unusual. More likely, they will reserve judgment and release written reasons sometime afterward. It could be the same day, weeks, or months.
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u/Eglitarian 1d ago
My local shop isn’t even stocking MK15s or IWI carmels until they see how the SCC case goes, they aren’t ready to be hurt again.
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u/Bigtwig2025 1d ago
Don't hold your breath. The end goal is zero firearms in Canadian hands.
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u/Appropriate-Regret-6 1d ago
Yeah I know. But I'm willing to part with a grand for the next year to be at the front of the line if we get a miracle.
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u/Sticky_3pk 1d ago
Retailers no, but you'll see gunpost break down from all the sellers jumping on the scalpwagon the second any bans are lifted.
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u/FiresprayClass 1d ago
Any retailer that would invest that kind of money on a court decision that's not made yet is either stupid or a fed.
No, no one is going to put themselves massively in debt to pay up front to import prohibited guns because someday they maybe will not be...
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u/Appropriate-Regret-6 1d ago
I'm referring to the prohibs they had/have in stock when the OIC's were first announce; presumably they're still sitting in a safe somewhere. Obviously no retailer is going to import a prohib right now. They probably couldn't even if they wanted to.
If I was a retailer and someone wanted to prepay for my "unsellable" stock, I'd be very happy for that. Worst case scenario they get an interest free loan from a customer that has to be refund in a year. Best case they have a paid and committed purchase.
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u/DoYouGetSarcasm 1d ago
You'd have to be stupid to put money down on the hope/expectation that the oic(s) will be struck down.
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u/CrabShout 1d ago
I love the optimism, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. What I would give for a Beretta M9…
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u/Appropriate-Regret-6 1d ago
I was lucky enough to get my hands on a p92. The day before the handgun order went into effect, I went to my local retailer to buy "whatever handgun you still have available". They had a sweet P92 INOX that I fucking love.
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u/ovjho 1d ago
Why would a shop do this?
For one, they’d draw attention to themselves and with how our government likes to think, potentially get a slap on the wrist for promoting “prohibited goods”.
Not to mention the upcoming date is only a hearing and even when the actual date comes, there’s no guarantee things will go in our favour. So they’d accept a bunch of preorders and process those funds then potentially have to refund them all.
None of this is worth the headache considering that preorders won’t be necessary. If we ever get half a market back in this country all the more desirable options will be on backorder for months, if not years. We can barely keep levers in stock, imagine if retailers had more than surp or garbage rod semis?
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u/Business_Working1572 1d ago
Retailers aren’t going to do that. However, if you’re the gambling type, and really want to roll the dice, pick up what you want via auction, and send it somewhere to be stored for you.
I believe SFRC offers storage options for a monthly cost, and also run auctions. Some great deals on auction prohibs, but the odds are really in the houses (governments) favour with this game imo.
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u/redjohn79 1d ago
Don't get your hopes up. Even if the hearing goes in our favour, the Liberal government will just slap on another ban.
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u/Remote_Mistake6291 1d ago
It will be months before anything comes back into stock. Maybe if a shop has something in stock they might think about it, but that is one heck of a long shot.